Gains on CEZ Don't Offset Losses in Telefonica and Komercni Banka

The market closed a touch lower dragged down by Telefonica O2 CR, Unipetorl and Komercni Banka. The total trading volumes were concentrated in Telefonica O2 CR and CEZ and were 30% above the long-time averages. CEZ reached an all-time high of CZK 1,011 per share on interest from foreign buyers. Telefonica O2 CR declined amid international selling but found good support at the CZK 475 level. Komercni Banka remained weak as foreign sellers prevailed on the market. Philip Morris firmed on positive news concerning consolidation in the tobacco sector, but the volume was low. Erste Bank was under pressure and found support at CZK 1,600. Unipetrol fell intraday to CZK 231, but recovered somewhat by the close.

Market is expected to open in positive territory led by Erste and CEZ. Erste will probably jump as Citigroup raised its target price by 20% to 67 EUR and CEZ should be underpinned by inclusion in the WIG20 index. A new IPO - Pegas - is coming into the PSE today. We expect to see a successful debut as the book has been 6 times covered. Unipetrol may come down in-line with the whole sector as oil prices declined. TEF02 will probably remain under pressure on the back of continued profit taking. Volumes are expected to ease as investors slowly close their books for this year.

October’s retail sales increased by 8.0% y/y after growth of 5.2% in September, according to our estimates. Growth was supported by a greater number of working days and by high demand for automotives as the number of car registrations increased.