Hungarian forint yesterday profited from the improved sentiment on emerging markets,
which was triggered by the Slovak koruna and ended the session 0.3 % firmer
at EUR/HUF 254.15.
Today investors will turn their attention primarily to January’s inflation and fourthquarter
GDP data. Especially inflation data are surrounded by uncertainty and although
it is widely expected that the inflation has surged in January and will surge in
next months the magnitude of the price rise is unclear. Our estimates for both statistics
–inflation as well as GDP growth, are more optimistic than the market consensus,
which if it turns out to be true might be rather positive for the forint. On the contrary
higher inflation in combination with slower growth would cause weakening of the
Hungarian currency. However we do not expect that these releases should cause
substantial movements on the Hungarian FX market.
ČSOB - Investment research