Actual preliminary figure (July): -18.4 % y/y
Consensus: -14.5 % y/y
Previous (June): -12.3 % y/y
Czech industrial output was worse than expected in July and muted the optimism from the June release. The figure is worse than in the previous month due in part to fewer working days. Nevertheless, we have got an indication that the Czech recovery is somewhat slower. Although the previous month gave a chance of more flexible reaction to the rebound in Germany and other Eurozone countries, we now see that the Czech economy still lags behind Western Europe. Export sales fell by 20 pct in July after a 11 pct decline in June.
We do not see a big influence of today release on the monetary policy. The interest rates are expected to stay flat for a longer period of time. We expect the industrial output to fall by 14 pct in 2009.