že investice předbíhají fundament? Věř, že to je mnohem lepší než kupovat na vrcholu. Nevím od koho tenhle článek opsali, jestli z Motley Fools nebo jinde, ale původní autor bude zřejmě američan, který podle sebe soudí tebe. Možná by se skutečně měli začít poslouchat spíš číňani:
What most people do not understand about the Chinese real estate market is that:
a) There is no subprime. Nobody has EVER bought ANYTHING for less than 20% down, and often 30% or more.
b) You can't use your apartment as an ATM in China. You can't refinance in China. There is NO such thing. It works like this: you have $100K savings. Instead of buying ONE apartment for $100K, you buy 3, put $33K down on each and take a loan on each (leverage). There are some obstacles here, but you put each apartment in a different name of some relative. You wait two years, price appreciates, and you sell two apartments (presumably you live in the third), and make, say 100% profit on each ($66K from each of the two you sold), so now you have $132K plus one apartment you live in and pay mortgage on. You take $32K in cash to live on, and REPEAT.
This is the way speculation is done in China. It's bad enough because it encourages OVERBUILDING but it is nowhere NEAR as bad as taking EQUITY out. In this case you are actually completing a transaction. You are out of the game. You don't BORROW against the house. This is what was done in the US, and this is why US was screwed when housing prices collapsed, because the consumer BORROWED and SPENT the appreciation in price. The buyer in China does NOT borrow against the property. He sells it and makes money.
And a word on overbuilding. There are millions of Chinese still living in caves. No that's not a figure of speech. It's a fact. The middle class still lives in 800 square feet per family.
It's going to take a lot of years before China is overbuilt.
So does that mean that there are no problems with real estate in China? No. The market has gotten a bit ahead of itself. It's a bubble. The government is going to intervene and pop it. Prices will stop appreciating for a year or so, and will then continue to go up, Government hopes in step with the actual growth of the economy.
There will be no US-style crash in China.
And another thing. You have no idea how difficult it is to get a loan in China. You don't just walk into a bank, show them your income proof, and get a loan a week later. You need to KNOW someone. You often need to pay someone off to get a loan, especially a loan on decent terms. When they say that Chinese Government gave a lot of loans out, they mean that it was about 5 times more difficult to get a loan in China during that period than it was to get it in the US during 2008. Normally, it's about 50 times more difficult.
So again, yes, more loans, more bad loans, but still FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR from an illegal-aliens-making-...
převzato ZADARMO z diskuze SEEKING ALPHA, mnohem hodnotnější než PLACENÁ opisující Patrie.....