July PPI and industrial production (IP) turned out weaker than expected:
* July PPI 3.0%y/y vs 3.8% expected and 4.1% (rev from 4.0%) in June
* July IP -4.6%y/y vs -2.9% expected and -4.5% (rev -4.3%) in June
All main components of industrial output posted weak figures, but in particular mining & quarrying (-9.3%y/y). But the 4.1% decline in manufacturing poses the bigger disappointment in our view as it indicates that news about Germany's rapid recovery may have been premature. In sum, July IP are a timely reminder that any improvement in German exports will affect Poland with 6-9 months lag. Softer than expected PPI is good news as it means decreasing cost-push inflation. However, we doubt whether these two data points will trigger a volte-face by those MPC members (W-T, Filar, Owsiak, Slawinski) who have already spoken out publicly against an interest rate cut next week. As they probably fail to change the policy decision, we do not expect IP and PPI to affect the financial markets (all asset classes). Sideways trading in a lacklustre environment will probably continue to set the picture in the coming days.