Tuesday, after market, (6,24 EUR, -3,26%) will report 1Q12 results.
Spot VLCC and Suezmax earnings averaged at $ 29,451/day and $ 26,317/day respectively during the quarter. Last week, average VLCC earnings weakened by 10% to $ 40,538/day on Friday. Average Suezmax earnings weakened by 10% as well to $ 14,963/day.
disclosed on 17 January that approximately 40% of its spot TI-operated VLCC revenue days for the quarter were covered at an average of $ 22,250/day. One month later, TI-partner OSG disclosed that 75% of the available VLCC revenue days for the quarter were booked at an average of $ 23,000/day.
Based upon the assumption of an average TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rate of $ 24,500/day for the VLCCs operated spot in the Tankers International pool, we expect to report revenues, EBITDA and EBIT for the quarter of $ 105.9m, $ 45.9m and $ 3.4m. Bottom line, we expect the company to report a loss for the quarter of $ 11.8m.
Average VLCC earnings have firmed to above cash break-even requirements during the first quarter with current spot rates above break-even requirements. Rates have been supported by a global build up in reserves, triggered by concerns on Iran. This improved market environment has also translated into a reversal of the downward trend in asset values as observed throughout 2011. Compared to end-of-December levels, the value of a 5-year-old VLCC has increased from $ 58m to about $ 65m currently.
At current exchange rates and asset values, Euronav’s NAV is estimated at € 5.41 per share. While we recognise there is significant leverage on NAV if asset values continue to firm, we stick to our hold rating for now.