The Polish zloty initiated the trading with an
upbeat trend on Friday, on the back of new
perspectives for fiscal consolidation that
were drafted a day earlier by the finance
minister Zyta Gilowska. The session opened
at 3.9750 EUR/PLN and 3.2560 USD/PLN
and within the next two hours the unit
recorded gains of around 0.5% against the
euro. The comment of the PiS leader
Jaroslaw Kaczynski that the Civic Platform
made it clear that it does not have a coalition
proposal for the PiS, and indicated the
necessity to search for other coalition
partners, had almost no impact on the
market. From our perspective it opened the
door for starting formal negotiations of the
PiS with the Samoobrona and PSL. On
Saturday the Political Council of the
Kaczynski’s party made a decision to go for
such a solution. Till the end of the session
on Friday the zloty hovered in a tight range
just above 3.9500 EUR/PLN.
We think the Polish zloty will remain
vulnerable to political developments –
particularly the wording of the Samoobrona’s
leader Andrzej Lepper. The most interesting
question from financial markets perspective
is to which extent his language will converge
toward a moderate and tolerable one, once
he scents the perspective of entering the
government (possibly as deputy PM).
(CSOB - Investment research)