We expect NBH to raise rates by 25 basis points next Tuesday

Hungarian central bank is going to have interest rate setting meeting next Tuesday. As NBH has been indicating for some time that it is going to fight inflation hard (it has raised rates by 50 basis points three consecutive times), we expect that September’s inflation data, which sprang a surprise by showing quite high figures, will provide hawks of MPC with arguments and monetary restrictions will not slow down soon. On the other hand, the current strong values of the forint against the euro are favourable for doves rather than hawks. Our opinion is that the likelihood of another rate hike at the next NBH meeting (October 24) has increased. We expect a rate hike of 25 basis points.