Actual (Sep): 12.2% yoy
Consensus: 10.7% yoy
Previous (Aug): 12.9% yoy
Industrial production keeps momentum and confirms reacceleration after somewhat weaker data in June and July. Double-digit figures for annual increase in production, sales and new orders provide enough reasons for positive assessment of current economic performance.
Output growth is driven by machinery production, car assembly and manufacture of metals. Most of other industries also posted gains in September.
Industrial output is supported by quickly growing demand abroad. The Czech industry profits from cooperation with Germany which economy surprises with strong GDP growth. Industrial export sales grew by 20.6% yoy, new export orders increased by 16.3% y/y in September. Thus, it is not surprising to see double-digit growth of the Czech industrial output compared to Ifo, PMI and other figures in Germany.
Leading indicators suggest that industrial production is likely to keep growing in coming months, though the pace could be a bit slower. We expect output to increase by 9% in 2010.