Actual (Oct): -0.2% mom; 2.0% yoy
Consensus: 0.0% mom; 2.2% yoy
Previous (Sep): -0.3% mom; 2.0% yoy
Consumer prices surprised and dropped once again. Inflation, thus, keeps at the CNB’s inflation target and lends support for more dovish stance.
There were three main reasons behind price level decline: lower prices of food and beverages, cheaper gasoline and seasonal decline of prices of holiday packages and other leisure services. On the other hand, clothing prices increased after the end of summer sales.
Headline inflation remains exactly at the level targeted by the central bank. Core inflation (ex food & energy & administrative measures & tax changes) remains deeply negative. Today’s CPI print supports more dovish stance and increases likelihood of the first rate hike in 2H rather than 1H 2011.