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ARSEUS: 3Q11 trading update: organic growth?

ARSEUS: 3Q11 trading update: organic growth?

10.10.2011 11:49

Arseus released its 3Q11 sales of € 116.7m, implying a growth of 23%, of which 1.3% organic. For 9M11, growth stands at 16.6% of which 2.4% organic. Despite the weak organic growth performance FY11 guidance is maintained.

Our View:
The results came in lower than expected by us (+25%, 3.9% organic) and consensus (24%). Especially the organic growth of 1.3% is disappointing, and is the resultof lower than forecasted performance for all divisions, which Dental continuing to be very weak.
Results at a segment level can be summarized as follows:
Fagron: +52% to € 61.3m, 5% organic (KBCS € 61.0m, 8% organic)
Dental: -2% to € 34.6m, -4% organic (KBCS € 36.0m, 0% organic)
Medical: +5% to € 12.6m, 0% organic (KBCS € 13.1m, 2.5% organic.)
Corilus: +10% to € 8.3m, 1% organic (KBCS € 8.4m, 3% organic)

Fagron:as expected, the growth is driven by the recent acquisition. Organic growth of 4.9% came in lower than market’s expectation of 7%. In the previous 3 quarters, organic growth was close to 8%). We will seek further clarification during the call on theimpact of the Brazial real on this number or if other items played a role.

: activities in dental practises continued to be very weak, while technological and dental lab activities showed healthy organic growth. The focus is said to be on improvingthe quality of services. The new strategy on rewarding the sales reps is yet not showing positive effect.

: results were lower than expected, due to the flat organic growth, which will be a focal point of attention in 4Q11.

: The issues with the shortage of technical staff in 2Q11 have been largely resolved, but not entirely. Management now expects the technical services group to be completely up to strength by YE11 or early 2012.

Thanks to the acquisitions and Fagron’s mid-single digit organic growth performance, the top-line growth of 23% looks very strong. However, the overall organic growth of 1.3% at group level shows that the slightest weakness in the performance of Fagron impacts the entire group.
Management remains confident that the FY11 guidance of top-line growth (14-18%), profitability to grow faster than turnover and organic growth (3-6%) can be achieved. While we have no doubt on the top-line guidance, we feel the organic growth guidance may at risk. We hope to receive further clarifications on how this will be achieved during the call with management at 9:30 AM.

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