The yields fell some 5 bps after ECB President Trichet failed to frighten the markets by hawkish comments like in March. The market activity was low, but rising bonds lured some investors interest. Since US Treasuries dropped in American trading there is big chance that the Czech bonds opened weaker today.
The March inflation figure is top event today. The slight drop of consumer prices in March, namely 0.1 %, is an argument for the doves in the central bank board to cut interest rates further. There was no single reason behind the March drop. Food, package tour and apparel prices fell. On the other hand fuel prices pushed price level higher but not as much as crude oil price suggest. Annual inflation dropped to 1.5 %, even deeper below the inflation target (2-4%). Nevertheless, the figure doesn’t mean that the cut on April’s meeting is sure. Inflation might rise in months to come due to record high crude price and also growth of the economy is highest in 9 years. The central bank action depends on the koruna development. If the koruna starts to strengthen again, they will cut rates further below ECB’s 2% rate. There is no doubt the inflation figure is positive for the market, but the development of core markets might be more important for Czech bonds today.
(CSOB - Investment research)