The GDP growth for the fourth quarter (2.1%y/y) was in line
with the preliminary results for the full year 2002 (+1.3% y/y).
The statistical office announces the preliminary full year GDP
before the release of the data for Q4.Consumer demand
slightly accelerated to 3.5% y/y from 3.2 % over the first three
quarters of the last year. The household consumption is underpinned by stable real wage growth and so far still expanding household credit. The y/y plunge of investment, that is present
since Q2 2001,moderated in Q4 2002 to 4.1% y/y. As a result,
the domestic demand accelerated slightly to 1.2%, compared to
1.1% in Q3.The acceleration of GDP growth from 1.6% y/y
in Q3 to 2.1% in Q4 was made possible by the favorable net
export.The deficit in current prices was much smaller than in
the same quarter of 2001.
The improvement in investment may be connected with the
smaller decline in the construction sector. Industry accelerated
to 4.0% y/y from 2.6% y/y in Q, reflecting strong exports.
Konrad Soszynski,Kredyt Bank,S.A.Warsaw
Jakub Dvorak, Investment Research, CSOB