Polish GDP grows 2.1% y/y in the fourth quarter

The GDP growth for the fourth quarter (2.1%y/y) was in line with the preliminary results for the full year 2002 (+1.3% y/y). The statistical office announces the preliminary full year GDP before the release of the data for Q4.Consumer demand slightly accelerated to 3.5% y/y from 3.2 % over the first three quarters of the last year. The household consumption is underpinned by stable real wage growth and so far still expanding household credit. The y/y plunge of investment, that is present since Q2 2001,moderated in Q4 2002 to 4.1% y/y. As a result, the domestic demand accelerated slightly to 1.2%, compared to 1.1% in Q3.The acceleration of GDP growth from 1.6% y/y in Q3 to 2.1% in Q4 was made possible by the favorable net export.The deficit in current prices was much smaller than in the same quarter of 2001.

The improvement in investment may be connected with the smaller decline in the construction sector. Industry accelerated to 4.0% y/y from 2.6% y/y in Q, reflecting strong exports.

Konrad Soszynski,Kredyt Bank,S.A.Warsaw
Jakub Dvorak, Investment Research, CSOB