(3 7100 HUF, 0,41%) is expected to post HUF 5.96bn consolidated net profit for 2Q09 (down 72.4% q/q and up 104.7% y/y) on 4 August 2009 before market open, on the back of decent US and CIS sales expansion and one-off FX losses. Our 2Q09 EBIT forecast of HUF 14.7bn stands 25% above the quarterly consensus of HUF 11.7bn (source: portfolio.hu based on 10 estimates, range: HUF 8.9-14.7bn). We expect slight positive market reaction to the results, as we forecast 1H09 consolidated net profit to come at HUF 27.53bn, which amounts to 56.5% of the full year Bloomberg consensus of HUF 48.75bn and 57.4% of our full year estimate of HUF 47.96bn.
(38,83 EUR, -0,22%) sales is forecasted to came at HUF 66.0bn on a consolidated level in 2Q09 (up 7.7% q/q and 14.3% y/y), mainly driven by strong US and Russian sales. We forecast US$ sales growth (+73% y/y to € 31.0m) to be driven by generic Yasmin sales in 2Q09, besides slightly decreasing orders for PLAN B. We forecast strong recovery in CIS sales (+22% y/y to € 60.5m) in 2Q09, mainly on the back of positive stockpiling effect and improving economic outlook of Russia. We expect CEE sales (-14% y/y to € 69.7m) in 2Q09 to be negatively affected by the discontinuation of Avonex contracts and strong price pressure in Poland and Romania. Hungarian sales (-13% y/y to € 26.3m) is expected to be hit by negative stockpiling impact due to subsidy cuts of cardiovascular and nervous system drugs from 1 April 2009.
Gross margin is expected to come at 62.2% in 2Q09 (significantly up by 559 bp q/q and 770 bp y/y), mainly due to shifting sales mix towards higher margin CIS and US sales and positive currency effects.
Operating expenses are expected to come at HUF 26.3bn for 2Q09 (up 18.5q/q, and up 18.3% y/y), mainly driven by R&D costs due to increasing number of advanced clinical research stage molecules.
Financial result is expected to be HUF 8.3bn loss for 2Q09, mainly on the back of one-off FX revaluation losses on the company’s trade receivables, cash equivalents and hedge positions, which will only be partly offset by net interest income.
Gedeon consolidated P/L
| |
2Q08A |
1Q09A |
2Q09F |
q/q |
y/y |
| sales (ex royalty) |
57,759 |
61,289 |
66,015 |
7.7% |
14.3% |
| Group sales breakdown by key markets (in €m) |
|
|
|
|
|
| sales (incl. royalty) |
233.8 |
206.9 |
231.5 |
11.9% |
-1.0% |
| Hungarian sales |
30.2 |
28.8 |
26.3 |
-8.8% |
-13.0% |
| CIS sales |
75.6 |
59.6 |
80.5 |
35.1% |
6.5% |
| -Russia |
49.5 |
40.7 |
60.5 |
48.6% |
22.2% |
| -Ukraine |
10.5 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
7.7% |
-33.3% |
| -Other CIS |
15.2 |
12.4 |
13.0 |
4.8% |
-14.5% |
| EU sales |
97.0 |
84.9 |
83.0 |
-2.2% |
-14.4% |
| o/w CEE/EU-12 sales |
81.4 |
69.7 |
69.7 |
0.0% |
-14.4% |
| -Poland |
24.9 |
17.9 |
18.0 |
0.6% |
-27.7% |
| -Romania |
37.6 |
36.7 |
36.0 |
-1.9% |
-4.3% |
| -EU-9 |
18.9 |
15.1 |
15.7 |
4.1% |
-16.9% |
| o/w WE sales |
15.6 |
15.2 |
13.3 |
-12.4% |
-14.7% |
| USA sales |
17.9 |
22.4 |
31.0 |
38.4% |
73.2% |
| Other sales |
12.9 |
11.0 |
10.5 |
-4.9% |
-18.9% |
| Royalty |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
5.1% |
-11.3% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Gross profit |
31,477 |
34,694 |
41,061 |
18.4% |
30.4% |
| Sales and Marketing expenses |
12,620 |
12,591 |
13,890 |
10.3% |
10.1% |
| Administrative, general and other expenses |
4,903 |
3,098 |
5,741 |
85.3% |
17.1% |
| R&D expenses |
4,772 |
6,568 |
6,751 |
2.8% |
41.5% |
| operating expenses |
22,295 |
22,257 |
26,383 |
18.5% |
18.3% |
| EBIT |
9,182 |
12,437 |
14,678 |
18.0% |
59.9% |
| Income from associates |
163 |
264 |
260 |
-1.5% |
59.5% |
| Financial result |
-5,807 |
9,746 |
-8,389 |
-186.1% |
44.5% |
| Pretax profit |
3,538 |
22,447 |
6,549 |
-70.8% |
85.1% |
| Taxation |
622 |
917 |
598 |
-34.8% |
-3.9% |
| Minority interest |
3 |
-42 |
-10 |
-76.2% |
-433.3% |
| Net Result |
2,913 |
21,572 |
5,962 |
-72.4% |
104.7% |
| EPS (HUF) |
156 |
1,158 |
320 |
-72.4% |
104.7% |
| Gross margin |
54.5% |
56.6% |
62.2% |
559bps |
770bps |
| EBIT margin |
15.9% |
20.3% |
22.2% |
194bps |
634bps |
| Net profit margin |
5.0% |
35.2% |
9.0% |
-2,617bps |
399bps |
Source: , Bloomberg, (15,16 EUR, 1,30%) Securities estimates