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Richter - 2Q09 earnings preview, due 4 August

Richter - 2Q09 earnings preview, due 4 August

3.8.2009 9:46

Richter (3 7100 HUF, 0,41%) is expected to post HUF 5.96bn consolidated net profit for 2Q09 (down 72.4% q/q and up 104.7% y/y) on 4 August 2009 before market open, on the back of decent US and CIS sales expansion and one-off FX losses. Our 2Q09 EBIT forecast of HUF 14.7bn stands 25% above the quarterly consensus of HUF 11.7bn (source: portfolio.hu based on 10 estimates, range: HUF 8.9-14.7bn). We expect slight positive market reaction to the results, as we forecast 1H09 consolidated net profit to come at HUF 27.53bn, which amounts to 56.5% of the full year Bloomberg consensus of HUF 48.75bn and 57.4% of our full year estimate of HUF 47.96bn.

Total (38,83 EUR, -0,22%) sales is forecasted to came at HUF 66.0bn on a consolidated level in 2Q09 (up 7.7% q/q and 14.3% y/y), mainly driven by strong US and Russian sales. We forecast US$ sales growth (+73% y/y to € 31.0m) to be driven by generic Yasmin sales in 2Q09, besides slightly decreasing orders for PLAN B. We forecast strong recovery in CIS sales (+22% y/y to € 60.5m) in 2Q09, mainly on the back of positive stockpiling effect and improving economic outlook of Russia. We expect CEE sales (-14% y/y to € 69.7m) in 2Q09 to be negatively affected by the discontinuation of Avonex contracts and strong price pressure in Poland and Romania. Hungarian sales (-13% y/y to € 26.3m) is expected to be hit by negative stockpiling impact due to subsidy cuts of cardiovascular and nervous system drugs from 1 April 2009.

Gross margin is expected to come at 62.2% in 2Q09 (significantly up by 559 bp q/q and 770 bp y/y), mainly due to shifting sales mix towards higher margin CIS and US sales and positive currency effects.

Operating expenses are expected to come at HUF 26.3bn for 2Q09 (up 18.5q/q, and up 18.3% y/y), mainly driven by R&D costs due to increasing number of advanced clinical research stage molecules.

Financial result is expected to be HUF 8.3bn loss for 2Q09, mainly on the back of one-off FX revaluation losses on the company’s trade receivables, cash equivalents and hedge positions, which will only be partly offset by net interest income.

Gedeon Richter consolidated P/L

IFRS consolidated, figures are in HUF m unless otherwise stated          
  2Q08A 1Q09A 2Q09F q/q y/y
Total sales (ex royalty) 57,759 61,289 66,015 7.7% 14.3%
Group sales breakdown by key markets (in €m)          
Total sales (incl. royalty) 233.8 206.9 231.5 11.9% -1.0%
Hungarian sales 30.2 28.8 26.3 -8.8% -13.0%
CIS sales 75.6 59.6 80.5 35.1% 6.5%
-Russia 49.5 40.7 60.5 48.6% 22.2%
-Ukraine 10.5 6.5 7.0 7.7% -33.3%
-Other CIS 15.2 12.4 13.0 4.8% -14.5%
EU sales 97.0 84.9 83.0 -2.2% -14.4%
o/w CEE/EU-12 sales 81.4 69.7 69.7 0.0% -14.4%
-Poland 24.9 17.9 18.0 0.6% -27.7%
-Romania 37.6 36.7 36.0 -1.9% -4.3%
-EU-9 18.9 15.1 15.7 4.1% -16.9%
o/w WE sales 15.6 15.2 13.3 -12.4% -14.7%
USA sales 17.9 22.4 31.0 38.4% 73.2%
Other sales 12.9 11.0 10.5 -4.9% -18.9%
Royalty 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.1% -11.3%
           
Gross profit 31,477 34,694 41,061 18.4% 30.4%
Sales and Marketing expenses 12,620 12,591 13,890 10.3% 10.1%
Administrative, general and other expenses 4,903 3,098 5,741 85.3% 17.1%
R&D expenses 4,772 6,568 6,751 2.8% 41.5%
Total operating expenses 22,295 22,257 26,383 18.5% 18.3%
EBIT 9,182 12,437 14,678 18.0% 59.9%
Income from associates 163 264 260 -1.5% 59.5%
Financial result -5,807 9,746 -8,389 -186.1% 44.5%
Pretax profit 3,538 22,447 6,549 -70.8% 85.1%
Taxation 622 917 598 -34.8% -3.9%
Minority interest 3 -42 -10 -76.2% -433.3%
Net Result 2,913 21,572 5,962 -72.4% 104.7%
EPS (HUF) 156 1,158 320 -72.4% 104.7%
Gross margin 54.5% 56.6% 62.2% 559bps 770bps
EBIT margin 15.9% 20.3% 22.2% 194bps 634bps
Net profit margin 5.0% 35.2% 9.0% -2,617bps 399bps

Source: Richter, Bloomberg, KBC (15,16 EUR, 1,30%) Securities estimates

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