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CE currencies stable ahead of the ECB meeting

CE currencies stable ahead of the ECB meeting

03.05.2011 10:49

The Czech koruna failed to surprise and stayed in a range between 24.10-24.20 EUR/CZK with nearly no impact of Bin Laden on the Czech markets. Also the worsening budget position of the Czech government had little impact on trading.
We believe that no-trend trading can prevail ahead of CNB. Nevertheless afterwards the koruna could come under pressure if the doves dominance is confirmed. If that is the case the 55-day moving average at 24.35 EUR/CZK could be tested
by the year end.
Meanwhile, Czech CDS spreads have continued to fall and they slipped to oneyear low. This implies that there will be more pressure on the Asset-Swap spread tightening as Czech bond yields (10Y) are still more then 70 bps above respective
swap rates.

The Hungarian forint stayed in a narrow range yesterday and strengthened slightly, supported by the strong PMI data. The EUR/HUF pair fell from an opening level of
264.60 to close the session at 264.23.
The Monetary Council of the Hungarian central bank met yesterday, but said in a statement afterwards that it did not discuss interest rates. The next interest rate meeting
will be held on the 16th of May.
Today, the domestic calendar is uneventful in Hungary.

The Polish zloty posted modest gains on Monday. The EUR/PLN currency pair edged down and in a lower-volume trading reached the 3.925 EUR/PLN level.
Today, markets are closed in Poland (Constitution Day). Hence, we think that the zloty could stay close to current levels. We expect the Polish currency to remain in wait-and-see mode until Thursday’s ECB monetary policy meeting.

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