Actual (Sep): 8.0 %
Consensus: 8.1 %
Previous (Aug): 8.2 %
The unemployment rate decreased more than expected in September. Flows on the labor market increased significantly, which is typical for this month. Labor offices registered a second wave of school leavers and graduates after holiday. On the other hand, more people found job compared with the previous month as hiring in September is usually quite strong. These two seasonal factors have opposite impact on the market and the letter was stronger, which was the case in the most of the previous years.
Labor market lags behind the production activity and can, thus, still benefit from the expansion seen till the 2Q. few months will likely bring further decrease in unemployment; favorable seasonality will help. However, outlook for next year is worsening and the unemployment rate (s.a.) may go down slowly or even stagnate around 8 pct.