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Kinepolis: Good attendance in 4Q11 expected

Kinepolis: Good attendance in 4Q11 expected

3.2.2012 10:50

Kinepolis reports its FY11 results on Thursday 16 February followed by an analyst meeting at 2pm.

Visitor numbers for FY11 are estimated at 20.98m. We expect attendance to improve from a 3.6% decline year-to-date on 13 November to -1.6% for FY11. The expected recovery in the last 6 weeks of 2011 is mainly driven by easier comparables in France and Belgium, partly offset by more difficult conditions in Spain. The easier comps are explained by the fact that in 2010, snow from mid-November until the end of December, one of the most important periods for cinema, made people reluctant to venture out in Belgium and France.

Despite this decline in attendance, sales are set to grow by 2% to € 244.2m driven by better B2B sales and higher box office and in-theatre sales thanks to a further increase in the average box office and in-theatre sales per visitor.

We count on REBITDA of € 67.3m, up from € 66.5m in FY10. The REBITDA margin is expected to reach 27.6%, down 20bps y/y. REBITDA per visitor is set to improve further from € 3.12 in FY10 to € 3.21.

Assuming a € 0.4m one-off gain, depreciations of € 20.8m, net interests of € 3.5m and tax charges of € 12.0m, net earnings and adjusted net earnings respectively reach € 31.2m and € 30.9m in FY11.

Outlook 2012.
Kinepolis continues to buy back shares. Elsewhere, 2012 will see the first full-year consolidation of the cinema advertising agency Brightfish, formerly Screenvision Belgium, acquired at end-2011. Brightfish realized almost € 13m of sales in 2010 and was break-even on the EBIT level. Finally, we expect news on the upcoming real estate projects.

Investment case
. Ahead of the results, we keep our Buy rating and € 74 target price based on a SOTP valuation showing that Kinepolis is seriously undervalued. We like Kinepolis for i) its significant discount versus peers on EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples when it deserves a premium, ii) its growth path in a mature sector, ii) structurally improving profitability, iii) solid balance sheet and room for further optimization, iv) the ~10% FCF yield and v) the valuable real estate portfolio, much of which is currently unused and due for redevelopment.

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