Czech koruna opened stronger yesterday, as it touched 2-week high EUR/CZK 29.865 in the morning

Czech koruna opened stronger yesterday, as it touched 2-week high EUR/CZK 29.865 in the morning. Improved atmosphere in the region was the main driving force. Nevertheless, the koruna decoupled from other CE currencies in the afternoon and fell back to the weaker side of the 30.00 level. There was no single reason behind, but overall domestic events were negative for the unit. First, the central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps (see bond section). Second, the key Communists votes for Gross’ government in today’s non-confidence vote are not sure. Finally, the current government crisis casts doubt on Cesky Telecom tender.

The Communist said yesterday, that they would not likely vote against Gross’ government as they regarded early election as a higher danger for left-wing parties, but their leader Miroslav Grebenicek asked Gross’ head. Moreover, the Communists’ MPs will finally decide today according to Gross’ speech in the Parliament. Nevertheless, we believe the Communist won’t made current government to resign.

The main cause of worries in the current situation is the privatization tender of Cesky Telecom. It’s not sure that the government will finish the sale in the current shaky atmosphere. However, since we believe the government will survive we also believe that they will sell Cesky Telecom to Spanish Telefonica, the winner of the tender.

Today all eyes will be on Parliament, where starts non-confidence vote procedure at 9:00. Thus the market might be nervous and the koruna may lost some ground in the morning. If the government survive (most likely scenario), the koruna will get some lift. Nevertheless, the environment may change quickly because US payrolls are due in the afternoon. Payrolls will the key mover for the EUR/USD pair, which influences CE currencies. Thus there is pretty big chance for the koruna to be volatile today. Czech koruna fails to gain from positive atmosphere in the region due to political crisis (3 days).

(CSOB - Investment research)