Hungary’s governing Socialist Party triumphed in the first round of the general elections (43.3%), taking the lead over the larger opposition Young Democrats (Fidesz, 42.1%). Pollsters forecasted a close call, although with the opposite results.
Yesterday, it was decided that four parties will get into the Parliament, the Socialists’ allies liberal Free Democrats got 6.4% while the conservative MDF gained 5% of the votes, both passing the 5% threshold. The entrance of the MDF to the Parliament was not forecast by the polls, and this makes the current situation more taut, as there is still a theoretical possibility of either a right or left wing coalition, depending on the second round results.
Out of the the 386 parliamentary seats 172 will be distributed based on the results of the first round. The Socialists and their Free Democrat allies secured 114 mandates, Fidesz won 98 seats, and its smaller opposition Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) got 2 seats in the next parliament, according to the first round results. The second round of the general elections will take place on April 23.
Currently, a left wing coalition is more likely, as MDF earlier stated it won’t make coalition with Fidesz, learning from their earlier experiences. At most, the MDF is seen providing Fidesz external support. As we've stated earlier, the Socialists should probably be seen as better for the markets, as they have indicated more fiscal restrictions.