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The Czech koruna strongly recovered yesterday

16.2.2006 9:58

The Czech koruna strongly recovered yesterday, as also other regional peers did. Having touched EUR/CZK 28.61 in the morning, the koruna shot up to the 28.40 zone, as PM Paroubek expressed his opinion that the koruna would enter European Monetary Union near the level of EUR/CZK 25.00 in 2010. Paroubek pared all previous comments from the central bank which tried to stem out the strong koruna. It have been the second supportive comment from the government since the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, it doesn’t mean that the government is happy with such strong koruna, only officials don’t realize sensitivity of the market to such statements.

Czech koruna back on stronger footing Yesterday was pretty busy day, as we heard another clue on interest rate outlook from CNB Board members. Michaela Erbenova told that she has no problem with reduction of interest rates in a relatively aggressive way under certain circumstances. She signaled that strong koruna could be a reason. Later on, governor Tuma added, that his previous policy of gradual rate increase went to ruin. Almost all Board members in January or February said that there would be no rate hike in foreseeable future. Moreover, it’s clear that strong koruna may make them to cut rates as early as on upcoming policy meeting. We guess from previous statements that rate cut has slightly higher support among members than leaving rates unchanged. Nevertheless, development of the koruna might change situation. However, the koruna shrugged off all central bankers’ comments yesterday. After the unit jumped to the 28.40 zone it remained little changed. The number of comments from the central bank and the government devaluated its significance for the market. Last but not least, development on other regional markets helped the koruna to hold its gains.

Today we enter to pre-policy meeting period, in which we won’t heard any word from the bank. Moreover no data are due. Thus the koruna may only digest recent comments and traders may bet on the result of the policy meeting. The range 28.22-28.56 seems to be a playground for the currency in these days. Another round of talks between Hyundai and Czech government ends today, but we do not expect any important statement.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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