The Czech Ministry of Finance yesterday released revised official estimates of Czech economic indicators. The ministry expects 2.5% GDP growth this year (as does Patria), revised from its previous estimate of +1.5%. The ministry somewhat surprisingly lowered its year-end inflation estimate, from 4.3% to 4.1% (Patria forecasts +4.3% CPI inflation at the end of 2000). The official FinMin unemployment forecast for year-end 2000 was reduced from 10.3% to 9.4%, which is identical to the current Patria forecast. The most debatable, in our view, was the FinMin’s reduction of the projected current account deficit as a percentage of GDP, to 2.8% this year and 2% in 2001. We consider these projections too optimistic; Patria forecasts a current account deficit equivalent to 3.7% of GDP this year and 4% in 2001.
(Ondřej Daťka)