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Czech Watch - 30 October 2001

30.10.2001 10:02

The government yesterday approved a new draft of the state budget for 2002. Revenues should reach CZK 701.9 billion, expenditures CZK 748.1 billion, and a deficit ought to be CZK 46.2 billion. Two weeks ago, the Parliament turned down the original draft, with a deficit of CZK 52.2 billion, and recommended its reworking. The cabinet managed to cut the gap by CZK 6 billion owing to a downward revision of this year's loss posted by bailout agency CKA. The revision is due to the fact that a transfer of the first portion of IPB bank's bad debts from CSOB bank will be delayed. Finance ministr, Jiří Rusnok, disclosed a new CNB's forecast of GDP growth in 2002, although CNB wanted to announce its new forecasts later in a new Inflation report. According to Rusnok, CNB shrinked GDP forecast to 3.9% form previously expected 4.5%.

Tax arrears in the Czech Republic totalled CZK 102.3 billion on September 30, down by over CZK 1 billion from the end of August. Arrears from the new tax system dropped by CZK 1.0 billion from August to stand at CZK 95.3 billion, while those from the old system were flat at CZK 7 billion. The volume of tax arrears in September dropped owing to a decline in arrears from corporate income tax, real estate tax, and real estate transfer tax. On the other hand, VAT arrears were up, and so were those from individual income tax and consumption tax.

The koruna has settled down in a narrow range below 33.50 CZK/EUR. Yesterday's trading was quiet and no trend could be seen. Against the dollar, the koruna gradually strengthened from the open of 37.42 CZK/USD to the closing level of 37.08 CZK/USD, as the dollar slid to the single currency. The euro/dollar market is waiting for the US GDP figure for Q3, due out on Wednesday. Bonds continued to rise on Monday. As inflation outlook became brighter, GDP forecasts are shrinking and a CNB bias shifted towards less tighten policy, bond market has revived. We could observe an increase especially at the long end of the yield curve. The state 6.95/16 gained 105 basis points from Friday's closing level to 114.05/35.

David Marek

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