CZ politics: Poll shows ODS lead

Based on Factum’s poll, ODS would win election should they were held last week with a lead of 36.3% over CSSD’s 32.0%. ODS has lost 4.7 p.p. against last months poll (41%) nevertheless its better result compared to elections (35.4%) while CSSD improved by 1.2 p.p. to 32.0% the result is unchanged compared to elections (32.3%). Both Communist and the Green improved by 1.4 p.p. and 0.4 p.p. to 13.7% and 7.3% respectively against last month’s poll while improved by 0.9 p.p. and 1.0 p.p. respectively against the election’s result.

Our view:

ODS would win elections nevertheless its lead has slightly shrank as people may be disappointed with the post-elections failure to form a Government. We remind October 4 when the ODS minority Government is expected to ask the Lower House for confidence. We do not expect it to win the confidence nevertheless the Government can stay theoretically in power for several months even without confidence as the President does not have a time limit to appoint another person or the same person (Mirek Topolanek) to form a new Government.