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Prokom: CFO guides for 2006 NI equal to 2005

18.10.2006 10:30
Autor: KBC/Patria

Prokom’s CFO, Dariusz Gorka, gave an interview to various press agencies, in which he commented on the following subjects.
2006F net earnings
The CFO stated that he is now revising Prokom's 2006 guidance of PLN 100m. The new goal is the level of net earnings made in 2005, i.e. PLN 80.3m. This revision is a consequence of delays in announcing and closing public administration contracts. At the same time, the decreased guidance is to be achieved with all the cost restructuring benefis being visible – the CFO stated that the plan had been achieved.

2007F net earnings
At the same time the CFO also gave a sweetener in the form of outlook for 2007 earnings. According to the CFO the current market consensus for 2007F net earnings at PLN 130m seems feasible provided the large public administration contracts are going to materialize. It would imply 65% y/y net profit growth. The CFO stated that Prokom has resources prepared so as to quickly conduct upcoming public administration contracts. He hopes that at least some decisions in the area of public administration are going to take place this year, so that Prokom is able to start work since the beginning of next year.

Changes in capital group structure The CFO stated that for the time being Prokom does not plan any new streamlining within its group – currently three mergers are taking place: Asseco & Softbank, ABG Ster-Projekt & SPiN and Comp & Safe Computing. He was not able to provide any estimates regarding the potential financial effects of the capital group changes. However he added that there should be much of unquantified synergy, mainly in the form of streamlined management. However, he did not exclude that Prokom may start conducting some acquisitions, yet not in a near future.

Financial issues
According to Dariusz Gorka, Prokom does not plan any changes within its dividend policy and all companies within the group should be paying out between 30-40% of their earnings as dividend. At the same time, Prokom’s net debt position should improve with Prokom Investments repaying, as promised, the PLN 100m loan, by Prokom Investments. The remaining PLN 83m are to be repaid in 2008.

Our view: We believe the news could still have some negative trading impact today, although the stock already lost 6% yesterday during the session when the interview was announced. The CFO’s statements effectively mean that the Prokom is cutting down its consolidated net earnings forecast by 20% to some PLN 80m reported (PLN 66.3m adjusted) from PLN 100m. In our opinion, this underperformance is mainly going to stem from very poor outlook for 2H06 at SPiN as well as likelihood of Comp not meeting its annual guidance. Our current reported 2006 consolidated net earnings for Prokom stand at PLN 110m, which implies that we have to cut our forecasts by some 27%. Taking into account the number of adjustments that are going to appear, we believe that Prokom could manage to beat the decreased guidance. At the same time the negative impact could be sweetened by the outlook for 2007F net earnings. Our 2007F net earnings forecast of PLN 146m is some 12% above market consensus.

Prokom’s CFO, Dariusz Gorka, gave an interview to various press agencies, in which he commented on the following subjects.
2006F net earnings
The CFO stated that he is now revising Prokom's 2006 guidance of PLN 100m. The new goal is the level of net earnings made in 2005, i.e. PLN 80.3m. This revision is a consequence of delays in announcing and closing public administration contracts. At the same time, the decreased guidance is to be achieved with all the cost restructuring benefis being visible – the CFO stated that the plan had been achieved.

2007F net earnings
At the same time the CFO also gave a sweetener in the form of outlook for 2007 earnings. According to the CFO the current market consensus for 2007F net earnings at PLN 130m seems feasible provided the large public administration contracts are going to materialize. It would imply 65% y/y net profit growth. The CFO stated that Prokom has resources prepared so as to quickly conduct upcoming public administration contracts. He hopes that at least some decisions in the area of public administration are going to take place this year, so that Prokom is able to start work since the beginning of next year.

Changes in capital group structure The CFO stated that for the time being Prokom does not plan any new streamlining within its group – currently three mergers are taking place: Asseco & Softbank, ABG Ster-Projekt & SPiN and Comp & Safe Computing. He was not able to provide any estimates regarding the potential financial effects of the capital group changes. However he added that there should be much of unquantified synergy, mainly in the form of streamlined management. However, he did not exclude that Prokom may start conducting some acquisitions, yet not in a near future.

Financial issues
According to Dariusz Gorka, Prokom does not plan any changes within its dividend policy and all companies within the group should be paying out between 30-40% of their earnings as dividend. At the same time, Prokom’s net debt position should improve with Prokom Investments repaying, as promised, the PLN 100m loan, by Prokom Investments. The remaining PLN 83m are to be repaid in 2008.

Our view: We believe the news could still have some negative trading impact today, although the stock already lost 6% yesterday during the session when the interview was announced. The CFO’s statements effectively mean that the Prokom is cutting down its consolidated net earnings forecast by 20% to some PLN 80m reported (PLN 66.3m adjusted) from PLN 100m. In our opinion, this underperformance is mainly going to stem from very poor outlook for 2H06 at SPiN as well as likelihood of Comp not meeting its annual guidance. Our current reported 2006 consolidated net earnings for Prokom stand at PLN 110m, which implies that we have to cut our forecasts by some 27%. Taking into account the number of adjustments that are going to appear, we believe that Prokom could manage to beat the decreased guidance. At the same time the negative impact could be sweetened by the outlook for 2007F net earnings. Our 2007F net earnings forecast of PLN 146m is some 12% above market consensus.


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