Industrial output – preliminary release
Actual (March): -17.5% y/y
Consensus: -14.0% y/y
Previous (February): -23.4% y/y
The Czech statistical office started to provide preliminary results of the industrial output. The first release did not bring any hope that the Czech economy reached the bottom in the current recession. Production fell by 17.5%, sales in nominal terms by 14.7%, new orders by 16.7%. Cost cutting led to employment decreasing by 9.9%. This way the recession from the euro zone transforms to the recession in the domestic demand.
Five consecutive months of double-digit fall of the industrial output are strong argument for the CNB to relax monetary conditions again after a brief pause caused by CZK volatility. It can happen next week. Our guess is 25 bps cut that can be repeated once again in June.