Actual (April): -2.0% y/y
Consensus: -2.8% y/y
Previous (March): -1.1% y/y
Retail sales went on falling in April despite Easter effect. It was the seventh drop in a row. Rising unemployment and stagnating wages take their toll. We can see decreasing demand in business-cycle sensitive items like gasoline, cars and other consumer discretionary goods.
Rising household consumption expenditures in 1Q came as a surprise. However, there are still no green shoots in the Czech economy to lift consumers’ mood and expenditures. Unemployment should keep rising until the end of the year, retail sales should keep in red figures.