Macedonian drugmaker Alkaloid is expected to release its 2Q09 results between 27 July and 31 July 2009. We forecast Alkaloid to deliver an IFRS consolidated net result of MKD 175.1m (up 4.8% q/q and 1.3% y/y) for 2Q09, mainly due to improved sales to neighbouring SEE countries and the company’s rationalization efforts. Our 1H09 net profit forecast amounts to 45.8% of our net profit expectation for full-year 2009. No consensus estimate is available on the market, mainly due to weak coverage of the stock. We expect a positive market reaction to the results.
sales are expected at MKD 1,472.2m (up 7.2% q/q and 14.7% y/y), supported by a 1.1% q/q weakening of MKD against the Serbian dinar (RSD) and Croatian kuna (HRK) in 2Q09. Alkaloid’s sales exposure to Serbia and Croatia amounted to 23.9% in 1Q09. After a recent inspection by a Slovenian drug agency, Alkaloid was issued a good manufacturing practices (GMP) compliance certificate. Alkaloid has approximately 2% sales exposure to Slovenia and similar exposure to other Western European markets. The confirmation of GMP standards will enable the firm to preserve its current presence on these markets.
EBIT is expected at MKD 203.6m (up 9.4% q/q and 5.2% y/y) in 2Q09. We forecast Alkaloid to post a higher EBIT margin quarter-on-quarter: 13.8% in 2Q09 versus 13.5% in 1Q09. We expect Alkaloid’s margins to improve on the back of a shift in the sales mix towards more profitable pharmaceutical products and efficiency gains from increasing economies of scale.
Financial result is expected at a MKD 9.0m loss for 2Q09, up from a MKD 8.5m loss in 1Q09, due to the low gearing and relatively stable MKD versus € in 1Q09.