Actual (June): CZK 20.4bn
Consensus: CZK 14.0bn
Previous (May): CZK 11.7bn
Trade balance provided another sign that the economy bottomed out from the deepest recession. Exports decreased by 15.1%, much less that in April and May. On the other hand, imports dropped by 19.3% burdened by worsening domestic demand. Oil prices, 50% lower than in June 2008, also helped to improve the trade balance. Taking all together, the trade balance reached the second highest surplus in the history.
Hopes for improving economic situation lend support for hawks in the CNB. If they decide not to cut rates today, then the likelihood of such a step will be quite small in months to come.