Philip Morris CR should announce its 1H2005 unconsolidated results today. According to the consensus, the market expects worse results than we do, therefore we may see some positive reaction. The top-line yoy development should be positively influenced by (i) a low base in 1H04 due to the excise tax hike in January 2004 and (ii) the hoarding effect ahead of another excise tax hike in 2005. Apart from the USD appreciation, the EBITDA is expected to be negatively affected by a one-off expense of CZK 400m associated with the closure of a production plant in Hodonin. On the other hand, net income should be positively impacted by the lower effective tax rate of 26% vs. 28% last year.
Unconsolidated (CZK m)
H1 2005E H1 2004 change Consensus
Sales 6,193 5,854 5.8% 6,080
EBITDA 2,497 2,731 -8.6% 2,300
EBIT 2,297 2,489 -7.7% 2,100
Pre-tax income 2,333 2,561 -8.9% -
Net income 1,750 1,810 -3.3% 1,600
EPS (annualized, CZK) 1,275 1,319 -3.3% 1,166