The environment was pretty positive therefore the koruna gained another 0.6 % against the common currency to close at the EUR/CZK 30.00 area. Initially, the unit got a lift from unexpectedly high foreign trade surplus in March which amounted CZK 6 bn. That’s the biggest monthly surplus ever seen in Czech foreign trade. It confirmed good condition of Czech exports, but mainly low imports pushed the trade into such high surplus. Hence more or less balanced foreign trade in 2005 is likely. Secondly, the koruna rose together with the Polish zloty on failure of the Polish opposition to dissolve parliament and call early election. That failure gives the whole region some relax time ahead feared Polish parliamentary polls, which will likely take place in September.
Today the central bank will release Minutes from the last meeting. It may be important for fixed income markets, but not as much for the FX market. Hence development in Poland, where another political action is expected today, might be decisive. The koruna may get some boost from the zloty and squaring of position in euros ahead of the weekend also can’t be ruled out. However, US payrolls due in the afternoon, could change atmosphere worldwide. Summing up, all these factors are slightly positive for the koruna.
(CSOB - Investment research)