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The Czech koruna dropped yesterday

15.3.2005 9:51
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The Czech koruna dropped yesterday, as the market followed sell-off of regional currencies. The unit opened weaker at EUR/CZK 29.54 end by the early afternoon reached its daily high at 29.67. The market ignored fresh macro data, namely PPI and current account. However, neither indicator sent strong signal to the markets.
The PPI rose by 0.2% in February, as it is still being particularly influenced by the development of raw material prices. It was only a touch above market consensus. The current account showed a deficit of CZK 4.3 bn in January, i.e. slightly above our forecast. Even so this is one of the lowest deficits ever. This low deficit is based on the already-known high trade surplus and favorable development of the balance of income. Transfers, on the other hand, had a negative impact on the current account this time because the government transferred more money to the EU than usual. As far as the financial account is concerned, we should note the significant rise in portfolio investments of Czech investors in foreign stocks and bonds. Incoming FDI were negligible in January if we exclude reinvested profits. The atmosphere on the market calmed down in the afternoon, of course, in step with neighboring markets. Thus the koruna erased some of its earlier losses to close at EUR/CZK 29.59.

Today the calendar is empty, thus the koruna may inspire mainly on neighboring Polish FX market. Yesterday’s pressure may weaken since the dollar stopped to strengthen in American and Asia trade. Thus sideways trade is the most likely scenario.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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