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CNB and NBP cut rates by 25 bps

25.6.2003 14:24
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Czech national bank cut its reporate by 25 bps to 2.25% NBP cut its intervention rate by 25 bps to 5.25.

The Czech national bank rather surprisingly cut its repo rate by 25 bps at its meeting today. Although we did not earlier exclude the possibility of a rate cut in June, signals from the bank suggested that the step would materialize rather in July. The CNB usually decides on rates along with discussion of its inflation report and the bank did exclude its earlier release at the May meeting. It seems that the bank started to surprise the market again.

Inflation allows for lower rates, but the need to cut rates does not stem from the domestic economy but rather from the economy of the eurozone. In addition, possible rate cut in the EMU would widen the interest rate differential, which might ignite appreciation of the koruna. It seems that rates will be stable for several months now. This cut might even be the last in this cycle, but this much depends on the ECB decisions.

On the contrary, the 25 bps rate cut in Poland was hardly surprising. The bank has cut rates each month this year, as a result, the intervention rate currently stands at 5.25%. The central bank is reflecting the low inflation as well as the absence of demand driven inflationary pressures. Last week, even the IMF suggested that Polish monetary policy was too cautious. We may expect another rate cut in July.

Jozef Kovalovský,
Jakub Dvořák, Investment Research, CSOB


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