The Hungarian forint hit a 27-months low as downward market pressure intensified ahead yesterday’s ECB press conference and uncertainty ahead of Sunday’s first round of parliamentary election weighed too. Hence, the EUR/HUF pair broke through the key 268.0 resistance (the recently established two-years low). It means that the important technical barrier fell and a way to an area above the 270 level is open now. Interestingly, the price action was not triggered by any news (either domestic or foreign) and it seems that just one big investor tried to play with the market ahead of the ECB press conference. As a result EUR/HUF spiked to the new high 269.50 in early trading. Although a dovish tone of ECB’s Trichet press conference bring some relief to the market, a positive correction proved to be just short-lived and the forint closed the session above the EUR/HUF 268.0 level.
Today, the forint should first look at the February foreign trade figures. The deficit came much lower then the market consensus (EUR 217 m versus EUR 271 m) as exports grew faster than imports. This is obviously a good result given ongoing deterioration in terms of trade. Hence, this news should ease the pressure on the forint. The high-yielding Hungarian currency will then wait for a release the US March payrolls figures, which could set a new direction for the whole emerging markets’ universe. And obviously, the forint will also eye Sunday’s first round of parliamentary elections. Just recall that the most market friendly scenario would be positive results of the parties of the current ruling coalition. Forint keeps falling ahead polls.
(CSOB - Investment research)