The Hungarian forint set fresh two-year lows yesterday as regional and global sentiment deteriorated yesterday. Nevertheless, despite these two successful attacks on the two-year minimum the EUR/HUF pair actually finished the session almost flat thanks to a positive development in core bond markets and especially in the Eurozone. Regarding trading: initially, the unit was tracking the weakening Polish zloty but the sell-off in the Hungarian FX market was even more severe. Hence the forint quickly fell to the new two-year low at the 267.80. The forint then recovered shortly but the second wave of selling came in late afternoon as the high-yielding Icelandic crown face fell into troubles too. The forint, however, recovered during the off-shore trading as a drop in US and EMU bond yields provided some relief for the nervous market. So summing up, the EUR/HUF draw a nice double top formation yesterday with the tops at the 268.0 level and the neckline at 265.60.
Some kind of consolidation in core bond markets and the latest pre-lection opinion poll, which confirmed a narrow lead of the ruling socialist party ahead of the populistic oposition should support the forint today. However, the Polish politics provide a threat for the whole region. Hence another highly volatile session can be expected, but the EUR/HUF resistance should survive today.
(CSOB - Investment research)