Polish FinMin released its updated inflation estimate yesterday. According to the ministry consumer prices grew by 1.7-1.8% y/y last month, up from 1.6% y/y recorded in August, largely due to the rise in cigarette and alcohol prices (which translated into a gentle increase in core inflation to 1.5% y/y) and food prices.
Our view: Until recently we believed inflation would moderate slightly in September, although if the revised FinMin estimate of core inflation is precise we should see price growth stabilize at just above the lower bound of the inflation target last month (1.5%). Consequently we have become slightly less optimistic as far as the year end outlook is concerned with the 2.0% y/y well within reach due to the effect of the high statistical base.