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Unipetrol – 2Q07 headline EBIT and net result are in line with market

Unipetrol – 2Q07 headline EBIT and net result are in line with market

13.8.2007 9:31
Autor: KBC/Patria

Unipetrol (283 CZK, 2,17%) IFRS consolidated net income came in at CZK 1.54bn for 2Q07, up 19.1% y/y but down 1.3% q/q. The result came 3.3% above the consensus forecast of CZK 1.49bn (according to Reuters) but 7.5% below our own estimate of CZK 1.67bn. Since the consensus was calculating with high Kaucuk related one-offs (around CZK 580m versus CZK 439m reported later) the result is actually below the market expectation therefore the reaction might be negative.

Petchem EBIT came in at CZK 1.4bn in 2Q07 up 16.6% y/y but down 21.2% q/q. The figure was 21.4% below our own estimate of CZK 1.78bn as the actual production volumes. The clean EBIT adjusted for write downs on profits related to Kaucuk amounted to CZK 1,84bn down 17.4% q/q when compared to the clean 1Q07 petchem result. We assume that company had much lower production volumes due to technical problems and the polyethylene production stoppage at Chemopetrol.

Downstream EBIT came in at CZK 612.6m in 2Q07 down 15.9% y/y but up 25.6% q/q. The result exceeded our forecast of CZK 670.5m by 8.6%. The result implies an effective refining margin of US$ 3.6/bbl for the Czech refineries versus our estimate of US$ 4.2/bbl.

Retail EBIT was CZK 109.6m for 2Q07, up 11.8% q/q, up 136.3% y/y and 4.4% below our estimate of CZK 114.6m.

On the back of weaker-than-expected petchem and refining contribution to the results Unipetrol has posted a 2Q07 EBIT of CZK 2.17bn (up 19.1% y/y but down 6.3% q/q). The result came 12.5% below our estimate of CZK 2.48bn.

Financial result came at CZK 71.8m loss versus our estimation of CZK 148.0m loss.

We expect moderate negative market reaction to the results. Although headline EBIT and net profit figures exceeded the consensus estimate, clean EBIT came somewhat below market expectation. We maintain our Hold recommendation with a fair value of CZK 286.7 per share.


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