Actual (May): -7.5% y/y
Consensus: -2.0% y/y
Previous (April): -2.0% y/y
Retail sales negatively surprised the market falling by 2.1% month-on-month and 7.5% compared to the previous year. Recession spread from the foreign trade to the domestic through rising unemployment and stagnation of real wages.
The demand for durable goods with high income elasticity fell most. Sales of cars dropped by 14.6% y/y, sales of electronic devises ant other home equipment fell by 8.0%. On the other hand, food sales decreased only by 1.3%, sales of pharmacies and drug stores by 0.3%.
Current retail sales figures are likely to shift Q2 GDP forecast lower rising probability of another rate cut by the CNB.