The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects the Serbian economy to grow by 1% in 2010 after an expected 4% decline in 2009 and 5.4% growth in 2008. While Serbia is expected to return to a growth path in several fields in 2010, the EBRD’s leading economist Mr Peter Sanfey pointed out that foreign investors are now less interested in Serbia and that the privatization of Serbia’s remaining public companies will be difficult because of the global economic crisis. The EBRD expects CEE economies to shrink by 6.3% in 2009 but then record average growth of 2.5% in 2010.
We forecast the Serbian economy to shrink by 4% in 2009, which is in line with the EBRD’s economic growth forecast. However, the transport, communication and financial services sectors showed resilience in 2Q09 and we therefore expect the Serbian economy to rebound by 2.5% in 2010.