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CE currencies stay calm

CE currencies stay calm

29.4.2011 10:26

The Czech crown more or less ignored worse US figures and stayed nearly unchanged near 24.10 EUR/CZK.
We believe that there is space for short term gains with technical target at 23.90 EUR/CZK. Nevertheless based on long term fundamentals the koruna seems to be overvalued at current levels and dovish tone of CNB (meeting next week) could weigh on the currency.

The Hungarian forint corrected back after it narrowed this year’s record high with the 263.20 level. The EUR/HUF pair rose back to the range of 264-265, which we had seen in the days before, so it looks that the forint was not able to break through the key resistance level first. However, it may continue to try to do so unless global sentiment turns less positive.
Employment data were not that good though because both employment lowered by 10K to 3.72m in the January-March period, while unemployment inched up to 11.6% from 11.5% a month ago. It seems that the recovery of the economy has so far failed to generate new jobs, but this could also be related to seasonal effects.

The zloty was trading in a relatively narrow band between 3.92 EUR/PLN and 3.95 EUR/PLN during last three sessions, seeking new impetus.
Today in the afternoon, the inflation expectations will be released. Inflation expectations soared to 4.6% in March. The figure was one of the main arguments for the Monetary Policy Council’s decision to raise interest rates at April’s meeting.
We still expect the zloty could stay close to current levels. The ECB’s meeting which is being held next Thursday is the first event on a schedule which might significantly influence the zloty’s trading.

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