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Polish state-owned BGK bank sells EUR from EU funds to weaken Zloty

Polish state-owned BGK bank sells EUR from EU funds to weaken Zloty

2.5.2011 10:41

The Czech currency weakened on Friday as it failed to test 24.00 EUR/CZK and the pair rebounded to 24.20.
We believe this week the koruna should stay in the defensive as we expect the CNB to stay on hold. The new inflation forecast may be slightly higher, but overall higher oil prices and EURIBOR should be offset by currently strong exchange rate. That is why the doves should still have the majority on the board. Beside that, in clear contrast we expect the ECB to pre-announce the next interest rate hike for June on Thursday. From a technical point of view the koruna may re-test 55-day moving average at 24.35 EUR/CZK soon.


The Hungarian forint could benefit from continued optimism on equity markets and the currency may test key levels again in the appreciation trend. The pair tested the key 263.50 level already last week, but the test failed and quickly fell back on Thursday into the 264-265 range we have seen in recent weeks. This week, it may try again to get through this barrier and if it succeeds the next level of 262.00 may come into the picture.
In April, Hungary’s PMI figure rose to 56.9 from 53.8, which bodes well for the economy’s recovery. The PMI has been over 50 for more than a year now and it has shown signs of acceleration in recent months, which may be followed by some further improvement of industrial output. The economy has one-footed growth based on export therefore a broader-based economic momentum would be beneficial for Hungarian assets.

The Polish zloty posted modest gains on Friday. The EUR/PLN currency pair edged lower to 3.93 EUR/PLN. Reuters said that the state-owned bank BGK was present in the market and was selling EUR. Hence, the bank started to carry out the program announced earlier, i.e. sell part of EUR from EU funds in order to support the zloty and curb rising inflation. Recall that the headline inflation reached 4.3% in March and we estimate it might even reached 4.5% in April. Regarding this week’s events, the calendar is empty. The zloty should focus particularly on the ECB’s monetary policy meeting which is scheduled for this Thursday. Apart from that, prospective interventions of BGK bank might further bolster the polish currency.

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