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German CPI unexpectedly rose in July

German CPI unexpectedly rose in July

28.7.2011 10:08

German CPI inflation surprised on the upside of expectations in July, rising from 2.4% Y/Y to 2.6% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for stabilization. On a monthly basis, consumer inflation rose by 0.5% M/M, while a more moderate increase was expected. State details show a mixed picture. Upward price pressures were led by leisure & entertainment, partly due to higher prices for package holidays, hotels & restaurants and transportation. Prices of food, clothing & shoes and communication dropped in July. After stabilizing in the previous months, German inflation rose again in July, due to the start of the holiday season and higher energy prices, indicating that inflationary pressures remain high despite increasing signs that the German economic recovery is losing some steam.
Growth in euro zone M3 money supply slowed significantly in June after an uptick in May. In June, M3 slowed from an upwardly revised 2.5% Y/Y to 2.1% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for a more moderate slowdown. Money supply was already at low levels and seems to have stabilized recently suggesting there are little medium term inflationary threats. The lending data show a mixed picture. Loans to the private sector slowed from 2.7% Y/Y to 2.5% Y/Y in June due to a slowdown in household lending (3.2% Y/Y from 3.4%Y/Y), which was mainly based in consumer credit, but also growth in loans for home purchases slowed slightly in June. The only positive sign came from lending to non-financials, which jumped by €20 billion in June. As a result, annual growth in lending to non-financials jumped from 0.9% Y/Y to 1.5% Y/Y. Apart from this, the data are somewhat disappointing and suggest that lending remains rather soft.


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