On Monday, the Czech koruna outperformed the rest of regional currencies and the EUR/CZK cross rate dipped slightly lower. The zloty again led region’s losses and a day after an intervention of Polish central bank depreciated by about 1.7%.
As far as the impact of weaker zloty on the public debt is concerned, the source from Poland’s government told Bloomberg that the debt should reach 53.8% of GDP according to domestic methodology after a revision (previous estimate stood at 52.7% of GDP). Moreover, the source said that the debt-to-GDP ratio should fall in years ahead and in 2013 should reach 50.6% of GDP. Let us remind that about a quarter of Poland’s public debt is denominated in foreign currencies.
In recent weeks, the Euro zone debt crisis started to weigh even on the Czech koruna. We expect that the Czech currency should remain under the pressure in weeks ahead. Moreover, we believe that the EUR/CZK currency pair should experience an increased volatility and that the koruna might further weaken unless the Greek debt crisis is solved. So, recall that we do not believe in a hypothesis that the koruna becomes the second Swiss frank.