Actual (Feb): 0.1% m/m, 3.6% y/y
Consensus: 0.3% m/m, 3.9% y/y
Previous (Jan): 1.0% m/m, 4.1% y/y
After the January jump in industrial producer prices the February figures show only a marginal increase. The headline index was held back by a decrease in prices of vehicles, metals and food. Vehicle prices decreased by 1.5 pct, while metals prices by 0.7 pct and food prices by 0.4 pct m-o-m. However, this influence was outweighed slightly by a rise in prices of chemicals and refinery production. Prices of refinery products added another 3.5 pct as crude oil accelerated its growth on the markets in February. The persistent growth of oil has also impact on the prices of chemicals.
The agricultural producer prices increased by 0.7 pct m-o-m, while they are lower by 3.6 pct in a y-o-y comparison The figures show that further growth can be expected of food prices in the CPI even after the tax hike effect has diminished.
The core PPI increased by 1.5 pct y-o-y and we can see a decrease in prices of market services and construction work. The data is in line with our view that the central bank is currently not under pressure to tighten its policy, although the headline CPI is elevated. The interest rates should stay unchanged in the months to come.