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Czech koruna again proved that the domestic government crisis is only minor factor for market action

31.3.2005 10:13
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The koruna got a lift from the slightly weaker dollar and consequently improved mood in the region. The koruna opened at EUR/CZK 30.20 and quickly shot up to 30.05. The EUR/CZK inched even below the 30.00 level at the end of the day. The unit strengthened despite the Christian Democrats decided to leave the government and joint opposition in voting against the government on Friday. Hence the Communists hold all cards now. They will decide today if they let Gross’ government to fall tomorrow or not. They ask Gross to finish establishment of Communists as a full-fledged political party, which will be treat as other parties. So far no ones wants openly to talk with them. Nevertheless, the political development might provide again only little impetus for the markets. More attention deserves the central bank board’s meeting which should cut interest rates (more in bond section).

Hence today the domestic events might be slightly negative for the market, but overall atmosphere in the region might be more important. Thus the koruna could hold its yesterday’s gains. Moreover, the atmosphere in the region seem to remain positive. Recall that Spanish Telefonica wants to buy Cesky Telecom for CZK 82.6 bn and it was the highest offer in the tender and much more than anyone expected. Thus, the koruna has some room to strengthen further. However we should keep in the mind that offer in the tender are in euros and the central bank will exchange the whole amount into korunas.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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