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Poland: Belka's victory does not necessarily mean political stability

30.3.2004 12:53

After yesterday’s consultations with the political parties, the President entrusted Marek Belka with the mission of forming the government. This nomination has found support from SLD (Democratic Left Alliance) and SDPL (Polish Social Democratic Party) and has met with a positive acceptance by Roman Jagieliński – leader of the Federational Parliamentary. We believe that Marek Belka has a 60-percent chance that the Sejm will entrust him with the formation of the government. In the current political situation, Belka can count on support from SLD, SDPL and UP (Labour Union) and on silent support from PSL (Polish Peansants’ Party). Although the latter of these parties is still talking about supporting Belka’s nomination, the weak results of PSL in the opinion poll are a guarantee that PSL will find a way of saving face and not helping parliament to fall. However, even in the event of a vote in opposition of Belka by PSL, parliament still has 260 deputies (out of 460 places), who are interested in parliament lasting as long as possible.

In our opinion, Marek Belka’s nomination - which is well accepted by the financial markets – gives rise to certain concerns from the point of view of the implementation of Hausner’s plan and the budget act for 2005. This is because, on the one hand, we are hearing declarations about the willingness to cooperate between Hausner and Belka and the need to continue the plan from the leaders of SLD. On the other hand, many members of SLD have doubts as to whether support for Belka will help rebuild the party’s position in the surveys. Even so, there will now be a situation of blackmail in the form of the dissolution of parliament. The problem may appear only if such an argument disappears. This will be precisely the case in the event of the passage of the acts that form Hausner’s plan. In this situation, gaining government support and then “pushing” through the acts by the Sejm could become an even greater problem for Belka, the “expert”, than it was for Miller, the “political fox”. There may even be trouble if the budget act is passed. This is particularly the case where if it is not passed, it would lead to elections next spring, which is a reasonably well-accepted deadline, even among members of the governing coalition.

Konrad Soszynski, Investment Research, CSOB

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