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Polish MPC cuts rates unexpectedly already in October

24.10.2002 8:33
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The MPC cut the intervention rate by 50 bps to 7.00 %. The Monetary policy council cut its intervention rate by 50 bps, for the seventh time this year, for the third month in a row. The cut was generally expected in November as the central bank was believed to save its ammunition for the expected decline in inflation for October to or even below 1.0 y/y.

In the statement from the meeting, the MPC backed the cut first of all by the stabilization of inflation at a low level while factors curbing inflation outweighted risks. The council also cited the worse outlook of global economy. The MPC must be also pleased by the reversal of the ballooning volume of cash in circulation in the latest money supply data.

Will rates be cut also in November? Many on the market apparently believe so; the zloty firmed slightly after the decision. A fourth cut in a row would mean a dramatic shift in the MPC’s stance from several months ago. Governor Balcerowicz said “…the current level of rates is nearly appropriate for the economic situation and inflation targets.” The reasons given for today’s cut will be valid also next month, the real level of rates will remain high as inflation for October should decline to or below 1.0% y/y. Following today’s statements’ logic, further cut as soon as next month may be in the pipeline.

On the other hand, MPC noted that the latest increase in industrial output might be a signal of some improvement. The MPC also said that it still lacked information on investment activity in the third quarter.

Jakub Dvorak, Investment Research, CSOB


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