The Polish zloty slipped by approximately 0.5% against the euro along with other emerging markets on Wednesday with investors additionally unnerved on the domestic front by the prospect of either snap elections or the possibility of a power sharing deal with PiS and the populists. Unexpectedly the PiS came out with an intriguing proposal aimed at convincing PO to back earlier elections. The conservatives declared they would agree on changes in the election law as proposed by the liberals, which were seen as one of the main obstacles preventing PO from voting for the earlier dissolution of the Sejm. PO’s response left no illusion though.
The liberals agreed to take a look at the PiS’s proposals, but added that the changes could not by any means be put into action in such a short period of time. Hence they firmly upheld their view that spring elections were out of the question. The Sejm will probably vote on the dissolution motion in two weeks time on the 4th of April, and as for now it’s fate still seems sealed. Just before the closing the PM Kazimierz Marcinkiwicz commented that the zloty should be valued at 4.20 EUR/PLN and by an appropriate policy the government may influence the market. He added that there is still some space left for delicate rate cuts.
In the morning there is likely the zloty to lose some value due to the PM’s comments from yesterday. For the rest of the day, the Polish currency should remain under a negative influence of domestic politics, although the data on the retail sales may provide some positive stimulus, as we expect them to be quite strong.
(CSOB - Investment research)