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The zloty was able to more than recover morning losses after the release of C/A figures yesterday

15.3.2006 9:38

Despite a sell off of the Polish currency in early trade on Tuesday, the zloty was able to more than recover morning losses after the release of C/A figures. The session opened 3.9200 EUR/PLN and 3.2845 USD/PLN and the zloty started loosing the ground as a result of a global repositioning of investment assets.

Two hours later, the unit hit daily highs at 3.9435 EUR/PLN. After that the zloty stabilized around the level of 3.93 EUR/PLN. The balance of payment data were a positive surprise to the market with C/A deficit reduced in January to EUR 163 m, from EUR 410 m recorded month earlier. Better than expected current account deficit was a result of substantial improvement in the balance of payment, that mainly came from outperforming exports. It triggered some strengthening of the zloty. It also seems that after the weak retail sales figures sentiment toward emerging marked reversed from negative to positive. In the evening there was a stormy debate in the Polish parliament about the role of NBP and its governor Leszek Balcerowicz that led to word-battle between the PiS and PO.

Zloty recovers as mood improves and C/A shows low deficit. We anticipate some a rise in the appetite for the Polish zloty on the back of an improvement of sentiment on the domestic bond market. However this scenario is subject to a great deal of uncertainty this month because of the annual change in the inflation basket (see more on that in the fixed income part). Beside of that a meeting of the banking sector watchdog devoted to a merge of UniCredito’s subsidiaries in Poland will take part today. We don’t expect the decision of the regulator to be taken today.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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