CR Media, the consultancy, has published its medium term forecasts for Polish media market, highlighting the strong overall market growth prospects, forecasted to grow from 0.59% of GDP in 2006 to 0.63% by 2008, and the growing importance of internet advertising, expected to grow from 3.6% of the total ad spend in 2006 to 5.3% in 2008, at the expense of TV and print media. Over short term, CR media expects advertising spending to accelerate from 3.4% y/y in 3Q06 to 9.2% y/y in 4Q06, driven by seasonality and political campaigning.
Our view:
CR Media forecasts are broadly in line with our estimates and the guidance from Agora and TVN. We think that the above average growth for the media market is already factored in Polish media stocks valuation and view the news as neutral with respect to market impact.