Consensus Economics, an organization that rallies the macroeconomic predictions of international banks and institutions, continues to improve its estimations regarding the economic growth and inflation rate in Romania. Hence, in the most recent report that groups the forecasts of ten international banks and institutions- Global Insight, EFG Eurobank, ING Financial Markets, DIW Berlin, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Raiffeisen Zentralbank, ABN Amro Romania and UBS, the GDP growth rate for 2007 is expected to reach 6.2%, versus 6.1% estimated two months ago. For 2008, the economic growth is predicted at 5.7%, while in 2009 it is expected to be around 5.5%.
Our view: We consider that this improved revision of economic growth rate is influenced by the positive expectations of the international institutions. However, these estimates are still situating below the levels expected by the Romanian National Commission of Prognosis, whose forecast for 2007 is 6.5%, situating on a downward trend in 2008 when it should reach 6.3%.